Monday, 27 October 2008
World markets slide further; Nikkei at 26-year low
World markets resumed their slide Monday, with Japan's Nikkei stock index falling to a 26-year low, as government rescue measures failed to ease fears of a prolonged global recession.
Investors seemed loath to wade back into securities following last week's sell-off, worried a stream of economic data from the U.S. this week could bring more bearish news about the world's largest economy and trigger another round of selling. Selling by investment managers, bracing for another wave of redemptions, also fed the declines, analysts said.
"We're seeing a lot of panic selling," said Peter Lai, investment manager at DBS Vickers in Hong Kong. "People are just liquidating ... Nobody can predict where the bottom is."
Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index, after trading higher in the morning, closed down 6.4 percent to 7,162.90 -- the lowest since October 1982. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index tumbled 12.7 percent to 11,015.84, its lowest close in more than four years.
European markets followed Asia lower, with benchmarks in Britain, Germany and France trading down more than 4 percent or more in early trading.
On Wall Street Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 312.30, or 3.59 percent, to 8,378.95. Early Monday, stock index futures were down, signaled a lower open. Dow futures were down 268 points, or 3.2 percent, at 7,994. S&P futures were down about 4 percent.
The sharp declines Monday came amid another round of government measures to boost markets. In South Korea, the central bank slashed its key interest rate Monday by three-quarters of a percentage point -- its biggest cut ever -- to prevent Asia's fourth-largest economy from lurching into recession.
Australian and Hong Kong central bankers injected funds into their markets to ensure liquidity. Japan's prime minister urged officials to draw up measures to calm volatile stock markets and to fend off further fallout from the crisis.
In Europe, the International Monetary Fund said Sunday it had reached a tentative agreement to provide Ukraine with $16.5 billion in loans and announced that emergency assistance for Hungary had cleared a key hurdle.
Only South Korea's market managed to eke out gains, perhaps in part because of the big rate cut there. The benchmark Kospi ended 0.8 percent higher at 946.45.
In mainland China, the benchmark index slumped to its lowest level in more than two years as investors reacted to dismal earnings reports. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 6.3 percent, or 116.27 points, to 1,723.35. It is now down about 72 percent from its peak about a year ago.
"The panic spread much faster than we expected. It's as if everyone wants to be the fastest runner, with the best escape," said Feng Yuming, an analyst for Oriental Securities in Shanghai.
In the Philippines, the key index plummeted 12.3 percent to 1,713.83 points, triggering a circuit-breaker that automatically halted trading for 15 minutes. The biggest one-day drop since February 2007 was caused by "big fund players" withdrawing investments to get cash and meet redemptions at home, traders said.
Some analysts say the declines are overdone.
"Our fundamentals were ignored; we followed the U.S.," said Emmanuel Soller, broker at EquitiWorld Securities Inc. in Manila. "But I believe there was an overreaction by investors."
Tuesday's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting was more cause for caution. The central bank is expected to lower interest rates by at least a half-point to 1 percent, though the rate reduction is already priced into the market and unlikely to calm its restlessness.
In Japan, stocks fell despite a report that the government was considering massive capital injection into struggling banks in a bid to calm jittery financial markets.
"The reported plan by the government hardly cheered investors. What the market really wants is a package of stimulus measures to boost the Japanese economy," said Kazuki Miyazawa, market analyst at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co. Ltd.
Citing unidentified sources, the Yomiuri newspaper said Monday the government is considering injecting public money worth 10 trillion yen ($108 billion) into struggling banks in a bid to stabilize the financial market hit by sagging stocks and a soaring yen.
Investors in Japan dumped exporters like Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. as the yen remained strong after hitting a 13-year high of 90.89 yen on Friday as investors unwound so-called yen carry trades. The dollar stood at 92.27 yen compared with 94.24 yen late Friday in New York.
Financial ministers and central bank presidents of the Group of Seven major industrial countries issued a joint statement expressing concern about the recent volatility of the yen.
"We are concerned about the recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability," the G-7 finance officials said in a statement released in Washington, Tokyo and other G-7 capitals.
In oil, crude prices weakened after OPEC's move to cut production in an attempt to halt the declines. Light, sweet crude for December delivery was down $2.80 to $61.36 a barrel in Asian trade. The contract settled at $64.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday.
Oil prices have plunged more than 57 percent from a record $147.27 in mid-July.
Saturday, 25 October 2008
Biggest falls in Indian stock market history
On Friday, the Reserve Bank of India gave the markets its biggest blow as it left key interest rates unchanged and lowered the GDP target to 7.5-8% for 2008-09.
Markets across the globe crashed on Friday. Japan's Nikkei shed 9.6% (812 points) to 7,649. Hang Seng plunged 6% (822 points) to 12,939. The Seoul Composite index tumbled 10.5% (111 points) to 939.
The worst hit stocks were DLF, Ranbaxy Laboratories Hindalco Industries , Tata Motors, Reliance Industries and Mahindra & Mahindra.
On Thursday, stock markets plunged following sustained capital outflows, shaky global markets, poor company results, and the International Monetary Fund's warning that economic growth in advanced nations will be close to zero. The BSE Sensex fell by 398.20 points, or 3.92%, to fall to 9,771.70.
We take you through the BIGGEST falls in the Indian stock market history.
October 24, 2008: The Sensex plunged by 1070.63 points (10.96 per cent) to close at 8,701.07. The National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended at 2,557.25, down 13.11 per cent or 386 points. The BSE Midcap closed 8.38 per cent lower and BSE Smallcap Index ended 7.66 per cent down.
March 17, 2008: The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex crashed by 951 points to close at 14,809 on weak cues from the overseas markets. Unabated selling saw the index slip below the 15,000-mark.
March 3, 2008: The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex witnessed its second-largest fall ever losing 900.84 points to close at 16,677.88 on frantic selling by funds, triggered by deepening concern over United States recession and some Budget-related concerns.
January 21, 2008: The Sensex saw its highest ever loss of 1,408 points at the end of the session on Monday. The Sensex recovered to close at 17,605.40 after it tumbled to the day's low of 16,963.96, on high volatility as investors panicked following weak global cues amid fears of the US recession.
January 22, 2008: The Sensex saw its biggest intra-day fall on Tuesday when it hit a low of 15,332, down 2,273 points. However, it recovered losses and closed at a loss of 875 points at 16,730. The Nifty closed at 4,899 at a loss of 310 points. Trading was suspended for one hour at the Bombay Stock Exchange after the benchmark Sensex crashed to a low of 15,576.30 within minutes of opening, crossing the circuit limit of 10 per cent.
February 11, 2008: The Sensex finally ended with a loss of 834 points (4.8% ) at 16,631. The NSE Nifty slipped over 5% (263 points) to 4,857.
May 18, 2006: The Sensex registered a fall of 826 points (6.76 per cent) to close at 11,391, following heavy selling by FIIs, retail investors and a weakness in global markets. The Nifty crashed by 496.50 points (8.70%) points to close at 5,208.80 points.
December 17, 2007: A heavy bout of selling in the late noon deals saw the index plunge to a low of 19,177 - down 856 points from the day's open. The Sensex finally ended with a huge loss of 769 points (3.8%) at 19,261. The NSE Nifty ended at 5,777, down 271 points.
10 October 2008: The markets crashed by 801 points to close at a low of 10,528. The crisis in the global markets, a fall in the rupee and poor IIP numbers led to the fall.
October 18, 2007: Profit-taking in noon trades saw the index pare gains and slip into negative zone. The intensity of selling increased towards the closing bell, and the index tumbled all the way to a low of 17,771 - down 1,428 points from the day's high. The Sensex finally ended with a hefty loss of 717 points (3.8%) at 17,998. The Nifty lost 208 points to close at 5,351.
January 18, 2008: Unabated selling in the last one hour of trade saw the index tumble to a low of 18,930 - down 786 points from the day's high. The Sensex finally ended with a hefty loss of 687 points (3.5%) at 19,014. The index thus shed 8.7% (1,813 points) during the week. The NSE Nifty plunged 3.5% (208 points) to 5,705.
November 21, 2007: Mirroring weakness in other Asian markets, the Sensex saw relentless selling. The index tumbled to a low of 18,515 - down 766 points from the previous close. The Sensex finally ended with a loss of 678 points at 18,603. The Nifty lost 220 points to close at 5,561.
August 16, 2007: The Sensex, after languishing over 500 points lower for most of the trading sesion, slipped again towards the close to a low of 14,345. The index finally ended with a hefty loss of 643 points at 14,358.
April 2, 2007: The Sensex opened with a huge negative gap of 260 points at 12,812 following the Reserve Bank of India decision to hike the cash reserve ratio and repo rate. Unabated selling, mainly in auto and banking stocks, saw the index drift to lower levels as the day progressed. The index tumbled to a low of 12,426 before finally settling with a hefty loss of 617 points (4.7%) at 12,455.
August 1, 2007: The Sensex opened with a negative gap of 207 points at 15,344 amid weak trends in the global market and slipped deeper into the red. Unabated selling across-the-board saw the index tumble to a low of 14,911. The Sensex finally ended with a hefty loss of 615 points at 14,936. The NSE Nifty ended at 4,346, down 183 points. This is the third biggest loss in absolute terms for the index.
Wednesday, 22 October 2008
Indian BSE Stock Market Crash and Lack of Gold Demand
There are a number of reasons. Most of them have been touched on before, but the main reason is that urban Indians have recently emerged from the dark ages of superstitious adherence to rigid traditional values – and stepped right into the utter blackness wherein the modern banking caste thrives.
Bank-issued credit has helped India transform itself from a country without a middle class beset by city slums, poverty, cholera and famines into a modern-day miracle that in no way falls short of the Chinese miracle. Naturally, that is something to be proud of, and Indians rightfully are - so, just as naturally, they tend to go along with their newfound appreciation for western financial wizardry. Unsurprisingly, they have promptly expressed that appreciation by sinking a good part of wealth into it.
‘Sinking' is the operative term here, of course. Here is what happened to the Bombay Stock Exchange since December last year:
There is one more reason that has not been discussed much, but it is a direct corollary from the last sentence above. The Indian middle class that has squandered away its former gold wealth for an ephemeral illusion of even vaster future riches has gambled away its last undergarment and is now in no position to buy anywhere near the traditional amount of gold anymore. In good old western tradition, they lost their britches in the stock market. Now, they are reduced to bargain-hunters as they are only willing to re-enter the gold market at prices substantially below $800 per ounce.
India's BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) has lost more than 50% of its December 2007 peak value. Gold (even its comedians exchange paper-contract variety) has only lost 20% in the same period. Now, all those illusory riches are gone, however, and the adverse wealth effect of standing naked in the cold winds of a global stock market rout is forcing Indians to conserve their resources, so they're just not buying much gold..
The question to answer is – how well are they conserving resources by staying in cash or money market funds, or whatever? How much better could they do by returning to the safety of gold? After all, gold is the only financial asset that is maximally insulated from the foibles of uninformed and corrupt policy makers.
India's inflation slowed more than economists expected to a four-month low, giving the central bank room to keep injecting cash into the financial system without fanning prices.
India's Inflation May Rise to 11.86%: Bloomberg Survey
Mind you, that the ‘four-month low' reported in the first article came in at 11.44 percent. That's not that far of a cry from the expected 11.86 percent. Mind you, also, that a 0.42% difference can easily be finagled in order to give the central bank the ‘reason' it needs for dropping its interest rate. Once you're talking about price-inflation in the double-digits, half of a single-point drop isn't exactly overwhelming – or even mildly encouraging.
With the economy of India's major trading partner, the US, about to be completely undermined and swallowed up by government largesse, and with the Europeans also not doing all that well on that front, who will farm out their personal services to (no longer all that low-priced) Indian virtual assistants?
One thing is certain: The latest drop of the derivative price-illusion we call ‘Comex-gold' into the sub-$800 region has proven that gold at or near $700 is viewed as a tremendous bargain, especially in India. This, combined with the stock-rout induced reluctance to buy at prices above $850 may well keep Comex gold in that tight range between these numbers for the near future.
However, when viewed in comparison with the fifty-plus percent losses of other asset classes, gold – even its third-cousin derivative variety traded on the New York Commodities Exchange – is proving, once again, that it is indeed the most reliable and therefore superior wealth storage facility man has ever known. In times like these, who could ask for more?
The Indian Price-Floor
The Indian market's $700/oz price floor under gold will keep it from following other asset classes into the abyss. Here is a picture:
Major stock markets worldwide have already tumbled over the fifty percent ledge and are about to resume their free fall. Many others will follow. I don't know about you, but the chance of buying into an asset that has already suffered most of its potential decline (Friday's Comex close for derivative gold came in at $782.90 for the 24hr contract) sound pretty good to me. That is especially true at a time when the world is holding its breath to await the Lehman implosion's second-round effects on the credit default-swaps market, when protection-sellers are forced to fork it over, this coming Tuesday.
Push the rewind button on this phenomenon a few more times while worldwide stock markets keep on tumbling and long-term interest rates keep heading the other way, and you can see why more and more people will come to the realization that, indeed, there is safety in ‘them thar hills' where gold can be found. All the while, credit markets are responding only in the most underwhelming fashion to hyper-billion dollar government bailouts.You know very well what happens when the credit doesn't flow in a credit-fueled global economy. It's the same thing that happens when gasoline doesn't flow through the carburetors of your car's engine: nothing.
That spreading perception of where true financial safety can be found will trickle down even into the nether reaches of the Valley of Comex where the derivatives-river of paper-gold flows like a non-potable, poisonous version of milk and honey. It has long been known that paper factories are some of the worst polluters of our waterways. It's the same with the Comex' manufactured stream of paper contracts. Soon enough, even fund managers will have to return to the valley to drink their fill of the poisonous mixture. What else can they load up on to reduce damage to their portfolios? Their funds' digestive tracts are not set up for physical intake. Meanwhile, physical gold owners (there are still many Indians among them) will safely look on from the hillsides as the polluted river below turns into a raging torrent.
India's moon mission is NASA's 'return to moon
NASA, which has sent two instruments abroad Chandrayaan to map the lunar surface, has termed the Indian mission as NASA's 'return to moon'.
It is not only scientists in India who are anxiously watching the progress of Chandrayaan, as it entered into the orbital space, top NASA scientists too are keeping a close watch on and its progress.
NASA has established a primary location as its ground tracking station at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel. A team of NASA scientists too are keeping a watch on the Indian mission.
"The opportunity to fly NASA instruments on Chandrayaan-1 undoubtedly will lead to important scientific discoveries," NASA Administrator Michael Griffin said in a statement before Chandrayan-1 blastoff.
"This exciting collaboration represents an important next step in what we hope to be a long and mutually beneficial relationship with India in future civil space," Griffin said.
With the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal in place, NASA officials now believe that Indo-US co-operation in Chandrayan could be the beginning of a long-term permanent relationship between the scientists of the two countries.
In addition to the two science instruments, NASA is also providing space communications support to the India's Lunar Mission.
Of the two NASA instruments on board Chandrayan-1, the Moon Mineralogy Mapper will assess mineral resources. The second the Miniature Synthetic Aperture Radar, or Mini-SAR, will map the Polar Regions and look for ice deposits.
"Data from the two instruments will contribute to NASA's increased understanding of the lunar environment as it implements the nation's space exploration policy, which calls for robotic and human missions to the moon," NASA said in a statement.
Tuesday, 21 October 2008
Chandrayaan set to lift off tomorrow, countdown smooth
Chandrayaan-1 embarks on 2-year moon mission
With the final countdown progressing without any hitch today, India's maiden unmanned moon mission--Chandrayaan-I-- is all set to lift off tomorrow to launch a two-year space odyssey that will catapult the country into an exclusive club of moon-faring nations. The weather conditions over the Sriharikota spaceport were being closely monitored and officials said there is no chance of the launch being postponed unless a cylonic threat emerged, as the polar rocket that will put the spacecraft into lunar orbit was being fuelled.
"Everything is going in order. We are ready to launch on the dot," a space official said, as hundreds of scientists went through the 49-hour countdown drill with precision.
The 1,380 kg spacecraft would be put into orbit by India's home-grown rocket PSLV-C11 which is due to blast off at at 6.20 AM tomorrow from the second launch pad at Satish Dhawan Space Centre Associate Director(SDSC). The work on filling of propellant for the first stage of the polar launch vehicle had been completed and the second stage filling would be over tonight, SDSC Associate Director Dr M Y S Prasad told PTI here, 80 kms north of Chennai.
"The countdown, which started at 5.22 am yesterday, is progressing smoothly and the propellant filling of PS-2 (first stage) has been completed," he said adding a total of about 43 tonnes of propellant would be filled. Asked about weather conditions in this space port town, which is witnessing isolated rains, Prasad said the rains would not affect the launch.
"The rain does not matter as the spacecraft is fully rain proof. Even if it is drenched, the launch would take place as per schedule.
" However, the launch might have to be rescheduled if there was cyclonic weather conditions, he added.
If things go as planned, India's unmanned moon spacecraft -- Chandrayaan-1 -- embarks on a two-year mission tomorrow seeking to throw more light on earth's only natural satellite. Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) spokesman S Satish said the sky is overcast and there are heavy rains, but it is not a cause for worry.
"Only cyclone-related incidents and lightning could force a delay," the sources said. The lift-off is slated around 0620 hours on board indigenously-built rocket, PSLV-C11, from the spaceport of Sriharikota on the east coast in Andhra Pradesh, some 100 kms north of Chennai.
The event would mark India's entry into select band of lunar explorers -- the European Space Agency (ESA), Japan, China, the US and Russia which have undertaken moon missions. "Basically, this (Chandrayaan-1) is meant for a comprehensive mapping of the lunar surface," ISRO Chairman G Madhavan Nair told PTI. "Earlier missions (by others) focused on specific regions or looked at one aspect or other only.
It's for the first time (in the world) that we will have the entire lunar surface mapped up." Chandrayaan-1 is seen by some analysis as a move by India to catch up with Asian rivals China and Japan, and not lag behind in the race for moon.
Coupled with the "pride factor", Chandrayaan-1 would signal India's rising international stature, seen as a reflection of its space prowess as well as build on its technological capability to undertake inter-planetary missions in the coming years. PTI.
Monday, 20 October 2008
RBI cuts repo rate by 100 bps to 8 pct
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday cut its key short-term lending rate by 100 basis points to 8.0 percent to alleviate pressures caused by the global financial crisis and maintain financial stability.
The cut in the repo rate will take immediate effect, it said in a statement.